The attack by the Hamas terrorist group against Israel began without warning, at approximately 6:30 in the morning on Saturday - Sabbath, a holiday for the Jewish community that also marked the end of the Simchat Torah holiday - 7 October 2023; just almost 50 years after the surprise attack carried out by Egyptian and Syrian forces that began the Yom Kippur War 1973. Just as then, the action has taken the Israeli intelligence and security services completely by surprise –26 of its 31 active battalions were deployed in the North of the country-, causing very significant casualties - especially civilians - and taking the country back to war in the south, while remaining on alert in case it suffers an attack from Hezbollah from the north.
- Hamas's war against Israel (I): the Hamas raid
- Hamas's war against Israel (II): drones and lessons for Spain
- Hamas's war against Israel (III): the naval war
- Hamas's war against Israel (IV): paradigm rupture and intelligence failure
- Hamas's war against Israel (V): operation "Iron Swords"
- Hamas's war against Israel (VI): the cyber derivatives of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
- Hamas' war against Israel (VII): the Red Sea crisis
- Hamas's war against Israel (VIII): Hamas's urban guerrilla war in the Gaza Strip
Once the dust settles and the fighting ends and as is usual in Israel, harsh and deep investigation processes will be opened that will surely lead to the dismissal of some of the commanders who did not know how to anticipate what was about to happen, even despite clear signals given by Hamas. Perhaps, also, the population will punish Netanyahu politically, since what happened has no parallel, unless we go back to the Yom Kippur, half a century ago. Hence many journalists have talked about the Israeli 11/XNUMX, or even a Jewish Pearl Harbor.
Be that as it may, what is clear is that the units deployed on the, in theory, impassable high wall that separates the Gaza Strip with Israel, were mostly support - administration, logistics and communications - whose function was to assist the combat forces -with minimal presence in the area– when these were pawned. A fact that only reinforces the Historical parallels between what was seen on Saturday and what was seen 50 years ago.
But that's where the similarities end. The transcendental difference lies in the nature of both actions. While the Yom Kippur War It was a high-intensity conventional war with eminently military objectives, the action of the terrorist group Hamas, which could be described as raid, had the sole objective of causing terror among the Israeli civilian population. Furthermore, if the 1973 war was the prelude to the triumph of diplomacy in the Arab-Israeli conflict, this war is preceded by its failures or rather half-successes, since the Abraham Accord and the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab monarchies has not yet managed to extend to Saudi Arabia.
The latter is fundamental, since Iran seeks by all means to prevent both states from taking that definitive step and, with a very high probability, is behind the action of Hamas, one of the proxies in the area and the threat that Hezbollah has posed –another iranian proxy– from southern Lebanon. In fact, if this and other groups join Hamas in its attacks, we would be talking about a very different situation and even a an "existential threat" to Israel, in the words of National Security Advisor Giora Eiland.
Whatever happens, internally this attack, although for some it may be a unifying and cohesive event for Israeli society - and it will undoubtedly be to some extent - has not prevented tensions against the prime minister from increasing. , Benjamin Netanyahu. A politician who a part of the population sees as the main person responsible for what happened yesterday while it has strained Israeli life to unsuspected limits and, furthermore, has been allying itself with the most radical end of the political arc. As a consequence, it has also widened the gap between the majority of the Jewish population and ultra-Orthodox groups –They have not been called up and have shown little solidarity with what happened in the south– on which his permanence in power depends.
For Hamas, as well as for a high percentage of the Islamic world - those established in MENA especially -, although the Israeli retaliation to the attack entails the reduction of Gaza to rubble and the evacuation of its entire Arab population, what has been achieved so far (which has involved unprecedented barbarism) represents a moral victory. Well, from his point of view they have "dealt a blow to the Zionists" and taken a decisive step to "free themselves from Israeli oppression."
For the regional powers that surround Israel, what happened is a sign of weakness of both one of the best armies and one of the best security services on the planet. Let's not forget that Israel bases its deterrence almost entirely on the belief in the inviolability of the borders it established during the 20th century. Israel's deterrence is something that is not the result of an action. Deterrence causes alterations in behavior; It is not the alteration itself. Therefore, the Hamas attack represents a huge blow to Israel's national and reputational morale, as well as its deterrence capacity. Well, Hamas's terrorist action has been a behavior resulting from Israel's own deterrent capacity, not an alteration in it.
Israeli intelligence has sophisticated technology, in addition to HUMINT and SIGINT coverage, covering the West Bank and Gaza. It's the reason to be. How this happened - a colossal failure of intelligence - is at the moment difficult to say, although there may be some explanation. The discrepancies and clashes between Benjamin Netanyahu's executive and the army as a result of the reforms in the judiciary, combined with the existing political and cultural tensions and disputes within the Knesset that permeate the rest of society, have undoubtedly contributed to the surprise of the attack perpetrated by Hamas.
Israeli security leaders had downplayed the threat from Hamas in recent months, as the group refrained from participating in conflicts started by its smaller ally in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad. There was a feeling that Israel, with its cutting-edge air defense systems, had rendered Gaza's main threat: short-range rockets, ineffective. Just last month, the IDF characterized Gaza as being in a state of “stable instability,” suggesting that the dangers posed by Hamas militants were largely contained.
It is impossible not to have the feeling that both Netanyahu, the security services and the IDF were so focused on fighting their internal confrontation that they were not able to detect a war on the horizon. war thatIn addition, it will result in a high number of civilian victims - most of whom will have family in 3 of the 5 continents, globalizing the impact in a certain way - and a more than possible erosion of its image among its allies and among its detractors due to reprisals. which, it is not difficult to guess, Israel will take.
The motivations that led to the terrorist attack on this date are still unknown for sure, but several possibilities are being considered. The main one -and the one that until Hamas and Hizbollah leaders have made public-, is that it would be a strategy to try to cancel, or at least, delay, the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, which like the Abraham Accords in 2022, had left aside the Palestinians and reduced regional power to Iran - the eternal enemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia. Now, it is not ruled out that the date was chosen as a result of the symbolic fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, that it is a compendium of both factors or that others come into play, such as Hamas' fear of an upcoming Israeli attack. choosing to anticipate.
The Hamas attack
“Operation Al-Aqsa Storm” – the name that Hamas has given to its terrorist actions on Saturday – has been, in general terms, a low-tech attack, based more on the element of surprise and planning than on the use of advanced weaponry. . Even so, it has left surprises, such as Hamas's command and control (C2) capacity and other actions no less important because expected, such as the use of drones against Israeli surveillance posts and even armored vehicles and battle tanks, importing the experience of Ukraine.
Beyond this, the bulk of the attacks have been carried out by dispersed squad-sized formations, composed primarily of males of almost every age range, totaling around 1.000-1.500 men. Armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, RPGs and grenades, they obtained strategic, operational and tactical surprise in a fairly small geographical area in Southern Israel. It was a massive and coordinated attack against various objectives in the center and south of the country, which has undoubtedly had the approval and help in the planning phases from Iran.
They took the Erez border crossing and, across the border, moving in civilian off-road vehicles, paragliders and semi-rigid boats-although these were quickly shot down by the Israeli navy– managed to completely disrupt the Israeli defenses, infiltrating different points in the south of the country. Simultaneously Thousands of Rajum and Quds rockets were launched -about 2.000 according to the IDF-. Most did not reach their targets, but dozens hit buildings in cities such as Jerusalem or Tel Aviv. As support, in addition, it has been documented the use of suicide drones and Hamas members did not hesitate to use commercial drones to drop grenades on Israeli military installations on the border wall. Hamas members themselves released images attacking and demolishing the “smart fence”” that Israeli forces installed in 2021 to counter the tunnels. Other photographs showed Palestinians climbing into broken down or abandoned Israeli military vehicles, while posing for selfies. They have not even hesitated to use commercial drones to launch projectiles against one of the well-known Merkava IV or ambush mechanized columns with portable anti-tank systems.
The attack, depending on the prism through which it is seen, can be considered to have taken good note of some of the key concepts of multi-domain battle. He has achieved a certain convergence of means and effects in a concrete space to saturate Israel, by conducting land, sea and air movements simultaneously and, quite possibly, even cyber actions - although mostly cognitively directed. With this, they have managed to sow chaos among the border garrison, achieving their objective of causing terror by penetrating, kidnapping and annihilating civilians on Israeli soil. A surprisingly sophisticated and brutal act of hybrid warfare.
One of Hamas' first objectives was some land near the border, in the vicinity of Kibbutz Re'im. Place where terrorists carried out an authentic massacre of civilians. At 07:00, using paragliders, jeeps and pick-ups with Hamas military markings, The terrorists broke into the Supernova music festival, where around 5.000 people had gathered, shooting, murdering and kidnapping its attendees.. Survivors claim that numerous women were raped in the festival area along with the still warm bodies of their friends, and then executed on the spot. Others were kidnapped and taken to Gaza, where several of them were forced to parade through the streets of the city, with blood gushing from between their legs. So far, 260 victims have been counted among those attending, most of them shot at point-blank range, with mutilated bodies and without clothes.. The action against the festival set the tone for what would happen in the following hours, at least during the time in which the terrorists were able to act with impunity against defenseless people. Throughout the morning and well into the afternoon, there were similar situations, but on a smaller scale.
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