by Sven Biscop in Conflicts
This article analyses the Battle of Rafah, which took place in May 2024 and, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself, was of “critical” importance. To this end, the following lines will delve into topics such as the background, placing the Battle of Rafah within the framework of the current conflict in the Gaza Strip. In addition, the scenario will be analysed, the participating forces and their plans prior to the battle will be studied, the development of the battle will be narrated and final conclusions will be provided, which will place special emphasis on aspects such as tactics or the intrinsic difficulties of fighting in urban terrain. Ultimately, the Battle of Rafah is interesting from different points of view, as an irregular urban confrontation on a border with a third country and, furthermore, within a region with enormous significance in world geopolitics. Index Background [Keep reading…]
Russia and NATO have been engaged in a struggle for control of the Baltic for years. What was once practically a Soviet lake has become, in the space of a few years, a NATO lake. In the event of a conflict, the disparity of forces necessarily leads one to think of a relatively quick naval outcome in favour of the Atlantic Alliance, although what happens in the Baltic cannot be separated from the theatres of Central and Northern Europe, where Russia has other arguments, even if the war in Ukraine has called them into question. The worst for the Kremlin, however, will come in the future, as the ageing of its fleet, the fact that it does not have submarines in this sea and the need to allocate most of its resources to compensate for the losses suffered in the framework of the war in Ukraine [Keep reading…]
China's influence on Middle East security is an aspect that has been little studied at the moment, although it is essential to understand the functioning and dynamics of the international system. The Asian giant, which has been changing its foreign policy as its economy has grown in order to become more assertive, nevertheless maintains a relatively low profile in relation to the Middle East, despite the fact that it is a crucial region both as a transit point and for hydrocarbon exports. China's strategy in the Middle East is, in any case, a long-term bet that is not always easy to implement, since there are certain events in which its way of proceeding can cost it credibility, such as the Houthi issue, or the fact that it does not have sufficient capacity to influence certain key actors in the region, such as Iran. Index The Middle East in the [Keep reading…]
Table of Contents Introduction Overview Field Organization Artillery Air Defense and Air Assets Drones Anti-tank Weapons Electronic Warfare and Communications The Transformation of the BTG. Assault Detachments The Situation from the Point of View of Armored and Mechanized Units War of Attrition and Maneuver Conclusions Notes Bibliography Introduction This conflict is causing an important evolution in the technological and strategic fields, although not so much in the tactical field. On the ground, both contenders have been adapting their tactics and organization to a situation that at first reminds us of the First World War, but which at other levels stands out for the massive use of drones, the management of (dis)information, the use of precise long-range fires, electronic warfare (EW), and other aspects based on digital management. As a result, the employment profile of maneuver units has changed and the use of weapons has changed. [Keep reading…]
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the latter country has been defending itself in multiple ways. Among them, resorting to the use of long-range weapons, from modified small planes to old drones of Soviet origin and, increasingly, to their own designs that have allowed them to reach targets more than 1.500 kilometers inside the Russian Federation. Beyond calling into question the reputation of what many considered to be the "best air defense in the world," the Ukrainian attacks have effectively limited Russia's ability to conduct attacks both through its combat aircraft and troops over the land; although not to the degree that kyiv wants. In the next few lines we review the way in which Ukraine has been committing increasing resources in a race to develop long-range weapons. [Keep reading…]
In recent years, the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has made progress in modernizing its naval capabilities with the addition of new and capable units, from destroyers to landing and logistical support ships. A process that will be intensified after the recent approval of the new National Defense Strategy and the Integrated Investment Program, which prioritize the incorporation of unmanned systems, including unmanned submarines type XLUUV. Throughout this article we explore both the advances made by Australia in this matter and the strategy followed by the RAN in its naval modernization process, prioritizing long-range systems and unmanned technologies to improve its deterrence and force projection capacity. thus seeking to confront countries such as the People's Republic of China, with an increasingly hostile attitude. Table of Contents Introduction The AUKUS framework in the development of XLUUV [Keep reading…]
The evolution of naval strategy in the Baltic Sea since the end of the Cold War can be considered one of the great successes of Western geopolitics and, in particular, of NATO. This is so, because in the space of a few years the members of the Alliance have been able to wrest from Moscow control of a sea that, until then, had been considered a Soviet-Russian lake: a crucial scenario that, if of war, would have forced this organization into a costly battle to keep its lines of communication open, while closing them to its opponent. A process that has been enhanced after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has affected the naval strategies of both parties and which also has profound implications for other theaters, all of which justifies its study. [Keep reading…]
The Battle of Avdiivka was one of the culminating moments of the Ukrainian war. The importance of this city for the Ukrainian war effort, its role as a communications node and industrial center or the possibility that, upon its fall, other key points such as Pokrovsk would be threatened, forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to stand up to this city. of the Donbas. After months of fighting to take over the flanks of this city, Russian troops finally broke through the Ukrainian defenses in the south of Avdíivka in January 2024, although they would still need until mid-February to conquer the urban center. A defeat of the AFU that, despite the enormous attrition suffered by Russia, opened the doors to subsequent advances marking, along with what happened in Bakhmut, a before and after in the future of this war. Index Introduction Order of Battle The Battle of [Keep reading…]
Wagner's missions in Africa have been characterized as relatively successful for the personnel of this parastatal army, except in the case of Cabo Delgado, in Mozambique. Africa, in fact, has been a quiet destination for these mercenaries, until at the end of July, Wagner's greatest military disaster to date began to unfold, with the exception of what happened during the battle of Khasam, in Syria, on the 7th. and February 8, 2018. With the difference that on this occasion, after the Tuareg ambush on the Russian mercenaries, access to devices such as Starlink has allowed the networks to be flooded with images of the carnage perpetrated in the Adrar of the Ifoghas . Index Introduction The Russian presence in Mali The military coup: the conditions are created for Russia's entry into Mali Africa Corps or Wagner? Context of the armed conflict in Mali [Keep reading…]
Launched just over a year ago, on June 17, 2023, the aircraft carrier "Fujian" (Type 003) of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of the People's Republic of China, represents a real before and after in terms of engineering and military possibilities for the Asian giant. Equipped with electromagnetic catapults and a very small island, it will allow China to continue increasing its air-naval dominance over its surrounding seas thanks to its ability not only to operate J-15 (and in the future, J-35) fighter-bombers but also Xian KJ-600 embarked early warning aircraft. Thus, and although it is still far from its American rivals in the Gerald R. Ford class, with its four catapults and three elevators, it marks the path to follow for the future Type 004, about which speculation is already beginning. The Navy of [Keep reading…]
In recent years, especially since the arrival of Donald Trump to power in the middle of the last decade, Brexit and the renewed Russian threat, materialized in the invasion of Crimea and the war in Donbas, have multiplied the number of European defense initiatives. Since PESCO, EDF and CARD came to light in 2017, the Twenty-Seven have launched other tools such as EDIRPA or ASAP, and proposed others such as EDIP. Added to previous ones, such as the CDP, they constitute, together, a hodgepodge of acronyms that very few are familiar with, despite their importance. The purpose of this focus is to shed some light on them, explaining their meaning and their role within the European construction in defense matters. However it is, although we try to lighten it, it is a topic [Keep reading…]
Those popularly known as drones - and more formally called UAVs or RPAS - have revolutionized the use of three-dimensional space within the different physical domains, understood as differentiated components of military operations. In clear allusion to the difference between a domain thus defined and a scope of action, we use the concept of airspace of responsibility as that which the land and naval forces will exploit with their organic air means, systems that we have already discussed in previous issues. In this work we will therefore focus on unmanned aerodynes that act as part of aerospace power, which is not only a field of action, the air, but a specific and differentiated component (branch) of joint action. This domain is complex when it comes to assigning a chain of command, since it is not only the responsibility of the air forces of the main reference nations to exploit it, but also [Keep reading…]
Germany is a particular case in everything that concerns its Armed Forces, at least since the end of the Cold War. Also, by extension, to its Navy, the Deutsche Marine. Although it is indisputable that the Germans are a leading power in the economic and technological fields, with companies that are among the most advanced and powerful on the planet, including those in the defense and naval construction sectors, they have not been able to capitalize these assets in the form of an equally powerful naval force. However, in recent years they have implemented a series of plans aimed at remedying this situation, although it will depend on different factors whether they come to fruition, as we will see throughout this article. Articles from the series Deutsche Marine 2024 (I): emerging from lethargy Deutsche Marine 2024 (II): Surface forces, ongoing programs and [Keep reading…]
Germany is a particular case in everything that concerns its Armed Forces, at least since the end of the Cold War. Also, by extension, to its Navy, the Deutsche Marine. Although it is indisputable that the Germans are a leading power in the economic and technological fields, with companies that are among the most advanced and powerful on the planet, including those in the defense and naval construction sectors, they have not been able to capitalize these assets in the form of an equally powerful naval force. However, in recent years they have implemented a series of plans aimed at remedying this situation, although it will depend on different factors whether they come to fruition, as we will see throughout this article. Articles from the series Deutsche Marine 2024 (I): coming out of lethargy Deutsche Marine 2024 (II): Surface forces, auxiliary forces and future [Keep reading…]
In the last five decades, we have witnessed a brutal turnaround in everything related to shipbuilding. A tectonic change motivated on the one hand by the rise of different Asian nations that have multiplied their shipbuilding capabilities, in some cases applying heavy subsidies to their industry to achieve this. On the other hand, due to the relative abandonment of the sector in the West, both in its civil and, increasingly, military aspects, the result of errors of conception, if not of ideological motivations. Halfway through the third decade of the 21st century, and although the skills of the staff and the number of facilities in both Europe and the United States are still important, it is inevitable to speak of relative decline. Also, think, in light of the changes in the war observed in recent years, that it is time to take drastic measures to reverse the situation. At the end of the day [Keep reading…]
The West supports Ukraine as a non-belligerent. China pretends to be neutral, but is increasingly seen by the West as a non-belligerent on Russia's side. In some ways, the West and China are no different: they do enough just to prevent "their" side from losing the Ukraine war, but otherwise they just hope that the other side will somehow give in - an attitude that cannot be called a strategy. Moreover, both the West and China will have to revise their strategies if they want to preserve their interests... Will this inevitably increase tensions between them? A vacillating West It is shameful that, more than two years after the start of the Ukraine war, the West has still not moved beyond piecemeal decisions about its support for Ukraine. The pattern, in fact, keeps repeating itself: every few months a decision is made to surrender. [Keep reading…]
One of the greatest responsibilities of any sovereign nation is to ensure its defence, whether in the essential consideration of protecting its recognised borders or in a broader sense, including its diplomatic, economic and industrial interests. A defence that is, ultimately, the basis for a prosperous society and, with it, the quality of life of its citizens. For years, our country has been witnessing what we could call a crisis of Spanish defence that, whether we like it or not, is felt far beyond defence itself. Defence, obviously, has implications that go far beyond the security aspect. In the case of Spain, the function of providing security has even been eclipsed, so that not only has the Armed Forces (FAS) become the country's greatest instrument of foreign policy, [Keep reading…]
Contents Number 64 – Cover
After much speculation, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has fulfilled her purpose - announced at the beginning of 2024 - of creating the post of Commissioner for Defence. The new post, which will actually go further, as Commissioner for Defence and Space of the European Union, is fraught with uncertainty due to doubts about the powers it will bring together, as well as possible overlaps and clashes with other commissioners - such as those for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy or Startups, Research and Innovation - and, of course, due to the person proposed for the post, the Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius, with a long political career and considered a "hawk" for his stance against Russia but who, in practice, has very little experience in defence. Index Introduction The mandate The new commissioner, a relative unknown (Un)expected movements and possible problems Conclusions Introduction After [Keep reading…]
This article analyses the Battle of Rafah, which took place in May 2024 and, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself, was of “critical” importance. To this end, the following lines will delve into topics such as the background, placing the Battle of Rafah within the framework of the current conflict in the Gaza Strip. In addition, the scenario will be analysed, the participating forces and their plans prior to the battle will be studied, the development of the battle will be narrated and final conclusions will be provided, which will place special emphasis on aspects such as tactics or the intrinsic difficulties of fighting in urban terrain. Ultimately, the Battle of Rafah is interesting from different points of view, as an irregular urban confrontation on a border with a third country and, furthermore, within a region with enormous significance in world geopolitics. Index Background [Keep reading…]
In the last few hours, thousands of Hezbollah members have been injured, many of them seriously, due to the explosion of the pagers they carried and used to communicate within the organization. The action, for which Israel is responsible, although all the details are not clear, points to two basic options: 1) the hacking of the devices, causing an explosion of the batteries or, much more likely; 2) their physical modification at some point between the factory and their subsequent delivery to Hezbollah's logistics managers. Whatever the case, Israel's attack on Hezbollah's pagers would have caused significant damage to this group supported by Iran, temporarily depriving it of its command and control capacity, as well as a good part of its personnel, not to mention the feeling of being totally infiltrated by the secret services. [Keep reading…]
Russia and NATO have been engaged in a struggle for control of the Baltic for years. What was once practically a Soviet lake has become, in the space of a few years, a NATO lake. In the event of a conflict, the disparity of forces necessarily leads one to think of a relatively quick naval outcome in favour of the Atlantic Alliance, although what happens in the Baltic cannot be separated from the theatres of Central and Northern Europe, where Russia has other arguments, even if the war in Ukraine has called them into question. The worst for the Kremlin, however, will come in the future, as the ageing of its fleet, the fact that it does not have submarines in this sea and the need to allocate most of its resources to compensate for the losses suffered in the framework of the war in Ukraine [Keep reading…]
The United States, despite its military, economic and diplomatic potential, has maintained a somewhat hesitant stance in recent times in relation to the Arctic. This stance has made it easier for actors such as Russia to become stronger in the region and for others such as the People's Republic of China to gain increasing influence in a crucial space for its resources and - thanks to the melting of ice - as a future route for maritime trade. With the new Arctic Strategy 2024 recently published - which comes just two years after the 2022 strategy - Washington intends to reverse the current state of affairs, putting in black and white the main lines of action that the North American country will seek to follow during the coming years, promoting cooperation with its neighbors and close allies, and seeking to achieve adequate preparation to carry out deployments in the region. Index Introduction States [Keep reading…]
China's influence on Middle East security is an aspect that has been little studied at the moment, although it is essential to understand the functioning and dynamics of the international system. The Asian giant, which has been changing its foreign policy as its economy has grown in order to become more assertive, nevertheless maintains a relatively low profile in relation to the Middle East, despite the fact that it is a crucial region both as a transit point and for hydrocarbon exports. China's strategy in the Middle East is, in any case, a long-term bet that is not always easy to implement, since there are certain events in which its way of proceeding can cost it credibility, such as the Houthi issue, or the fact that it does not have sufficient capacity to influence certain key actors in the region, such as Iran. Index The Middle East in the [Keep reading…]
In this publication we have always given capital importance to sources; to reading, in short. Many of the articles and focus articles that we have published in recent years, regardless of their length, are full of links and references to works by other authors, so that the reader can at any time not only consult the original sources, but also expand their knowledge on topics that we believe to be of interest to them. In fact, we are sometimes criticized, even in the reports on the war in Ukraine, for the fact that some of the links we include have apparently little to do with the central topic being discussed at that time. However, they are all there for a reason, even if this is as simple as not straying from the topic, preventing us from going as deep as we would like into a complementary and highly relevant issue. That is why [Keep reading…]
Table of Contents Introduction Overview Field Organization Artillery Air Defense and Air Assets Drones Anti-tank Weapons Electronic Warfare and Communications The Transformation of the BTG. Assault Detachments The Situation from the Point of View of Armored and Mechanized Units War of Attrition and Maneuver Conclusions Notes Bibliography Introduction This conflict is causing an important evolution in the technological and strategic fields, although not so much in the tactical field. On the ground, both contenders have been adapting their tactics and organization to a situation that at first reminds us of the First World War, but which at other levels stands out for the massive use of drones, the management of (dis)information, the use of precise long-range fires, electronic warfare (EW), and other aspects based on digital management. As a result, the employment profile of maneuver units has changed and the use of weapons has changed. [Keep reading…]
Contents Number 63 – Cover
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the latter country has been defending itself in multiple ways. Among them, resorting to the use of long-range weapons, from modified small planes to old drones of Soviet origin and, increasingly, to their own designs that have allowed them to reach targets more than 1.500 kilometers inside the Russian Federation. Beyond calling into question the reputation of what many considered to be the "best air defense in the world," the Ukrainian attacks have effectively limited Russia's ability to conduct attacks both through its combat aircraft and troops over the land; although not to the degree that kyiv wants. In the next few lines we review the way in which Ukraine has been committing increasing resources in a race to develop long-range weapons. [Keep reading…]
In recent years, the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has made progress in modernizing its naval capabilities with the addition of new and capable units, from destroyers to landing and logistical support ships. A process that will be intensified after the recent approval of the new National Defense Strategy and the Integrated Investment Program, which prioritize the incorporation of unmanned systems, including unmanned submarines type XLUUV. Throughout this article we explore both the advances made by Australia in this matter and the strategy followed by the RAN in its naval modernization process, prioritizing long-range systems and unmanned technologies to improve its deterrence and force projection capacity. thus seeking to confront countries such as the People's Republic of China, with an increasingly hostile attitude. Table of Contents Introduction The AUKUS framework in the development of XLUUV [Keep reading…]
The evolution of naval strategy in the Baltic Sea since the end of the Cold War can be considered one of the great successes of Western geopolitics and, in particular, of NATO. This is so, because in the space of a few years the members of the Alliance have been able to wrest from Moscow control of a sea that, until then, had been considered a Soviet-Russian lake: a crucial scenario that, if of war, would have forced this organization into a costly battle to keep its lines of communication open, while closing them to its opponent. A process that has been enhanced after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has affected the naval strategies of both parties and which also has profound implications for other theaters, all of which justifies its study. [Keep reading…]
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