The dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the sovereignty of the Essequibo territory dates back almost two centuries. It has had comings and goings, but it remains unresolved to this day. However, tension began to rise in 2015 and has escalated in the last six months. A review of the economic, political, internal and external aspects of this dispute can help to better understand the underlying current that flows under the current discord around the Essequibo. Recovering a past around which there is consensus, which coheres, to try to solve the problems of the present is seen as a strategy of dubious effectiveness at the outset. However, it seems to be the path chosen by Venezuela, immersed as it has been for years in one of the most difficult times in its recent history and with a regime in low times.
“The past never dies, it is not even the past,” said the American writer William Faulkner. A phrase that fits almost with millimetric precision to recent, and not so recent, events between Venezuela and Guyana.
Now that the sound of the drums of war seems to be receding, it is perceived as the right time to point out some reflections on what has happened, and what for a short period of time seemed like it could happen, between both South American countries, for the long disputed territory delimited by the Essequibo River.
On Thursday, December 14, 2023, in the afternoon, the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and his Guyanese counterpart, Irfaan Ali, meet in Kingstown, capital of the Caribbean island of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. A meeting that takes place thanks to the mediation of the Brazilian president, Lula da Silva, and the host prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves, and promoted by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).[1].
The meeting leaves the matter at a standstill, without reaching any substantive resolution. However, it reduces tension as they both agree not to threaten each other or use force in this matter. Furthermore, the meeting marks the beginning of a new phase of dialogue between Venezuela and Guyana on their disagreement in relation to the currently Guyanese territory, located to the east of Venezuela, up to the Essequibo River and which Caracas has claimed as its own for almost two centuries. Negotiations in which Venezuela aspires to reach some type of cooperation agreement with Guyana regarding oil and gas in the region. Something that, until now, Georgetown has refused on several occasions.
In the 11-point joint declaration, Guyana shows confidence in the UN International Court of Justice, which resolves the border dispute. Meanwhile, Venezuela maintains its position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the ICJ in this regard. But both agree not to escalate the conflict and to avoid possible incidents. A joint technical commission will work on a solution and within three months, the parties will meet again in Brazil[2].
But when the situation seemed to have calmed down, the decision of the British Government to send its warship HMS Trent to the waters of the disputed area, on a mission of diplomatic and military support to its former colony, and member of the Commonwealth, enrages Caracas. For the Venezuelan Government, the decision represents a provocation, a direct threat and a violation of the agreement reached with Guyana just two weeks earlier. Among other reasons, because the mission of the British ship includes visits, joint activities and training with the country's navy and other allies.[3] and, furthermore, because the announcement takes place “synchronized with actions of the United States Southern Command,” assures the Maduro administration.[4].
Thus, the Venezuelan Executive responds with a “defensive action” on the Atlantic coast, consisting of the deployment of 5.682 “combatants”, 28 aircraft and 16 vessels.
However, after calls for calm from Brazil and Guyana, and the effort from London to “avoid an escalation”, the situation has not worsened, at least so far (mid-January 2024).[5].
Meanwhile, for its part, oblivious to all of the above, the American oil giant Exxon Mobil, one of the large investment companies in the exploration and extraction of oil in Guyana's waters (a part of them in dispute with Venezuela) has assured that , despite the tension of recent weeks, “We are not going anywhere – our objective remains the efficient and responsible development of resources, as contained in our agreement with the Guyanese Government”[6].
The tone of the statements, actions and threats of violent confrontation have increased in recent weeks, following the Venezuelan referendum on the annexation of Essequibo on December 3, which Guyana has seen as a threat, taking the case to UN Security Council and announcing contacts with military partners such as the United States, which is currently conducting joint military flying exercises with Guyana in the area[7]. The UN establishes that Venezuela should not take any action on the disputed territory, today in Guyana, although the dispute, as has been seen, has not yet been resolved.
But the tension had already skyrocketed last September 2023. By then, the first auction by the Government of Guyana of 14 oil and gas exploitation blocks on its coasts took place, partly located in the area in dispute with Venezuela. , as noted above. Georgetown receives eight offers, including those from groups that include giants such as Exxon and Total. It is the first step to expand its energy industry and take advantage of the more than 11.000 barrels of oil found in the area in 2015 by Exxon, as well as the gas reserves discovered. Contracts began to be awarded as of November 1, 2023[8].
It is within the framework of these movements that Venezuela once again reactivates its old territorial claim, it had already done so in 2015 when the discovery of oil and gas reserves in the area occurred. However, on this occasion, in addition to other internal factors that will be discussed later in this document, time is of the essence, when Guyana is already talking about awarding contracts to begin the exploitation of such valuable resources, hence the dramatic Venezuelan reaction.
Background
The basis of Venezuela's claim to the territory extending west of the Essequibo River dates back to colonial times. When Spain founded the Captaincy General of Venezuela, Essequibo was part of the territory and remained under the control of Venezuela after its independence in 1811. Venezuela has presented numerous documents in this regard, such as the Royal Decrees, to demonstrate its rights. But the conflict broke out in 1841, after the independence of the metropolis. Venezuela, which was not yet officially a country, files an official complaint against what it considers to be a British invasion of Venezuelan territory and affirms that that strip of land belongs to it, which it continues to maintain to this day. However, it is an incipient State facing the British Empire of the time, which is struggling to enlarge its colony (British Guiana since 1814) to an area where gold and other minerals had just been discovered.[9].
In 1895, the United States intervened under the Monroe Doctrine in favor of the Venezuelan claim and denounced a “mysterious expansion of borders” by the British and recommended that the matter be resolved in international arbitration. But the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 rules in favor of the United Kingdom. Some time later it would be recognized that the decision was made under strong pressure from the British and that the judges were not impartial. What motivates the Venezuelan rejection of the award and the reactivation of its claim[10].
But it was not until three months before Guyana's independence from the United Kingdom, already in 1966, when London agreed with Caracas on the Geneva Agreement, which recognized Venezuelan rights and sought to find solutions through dialogue at the request of the UN, without further specificity. Between 1982 and 1999, both countries sought a solution with the UN as mediator, without concrete results. The problem remained archived until it was reactivated in 2015 when oil deposits began to be discovered in the disputed coastal area.
Given the situation, in 2018, Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, decided to transfer the case to the International Court of Justice, at the request of Guyana. In April 2023, the International Court of Justice declares itself competent to rule on the issue, but its verdict may take years. However, Venezuela does not recognize any jurisdiction and abides by the Geneva Agreement. Meanwhile, Guyana assures that the problem was resolved in the Paris Award of 1899, so that territory is under its sovereignty.[11]. And so until today...
A rich territory and a regime in trouble
The Essequibo of discord is a 160.000 square kilometer strip of land that is home to six of the 10 regions that make up Guyana, as well as a third of its 800.000 inhabitants.[12].
It is rich in strategic natural resources such as bauxite, gold (which already unleashed British ambition in the 19th century and today only the Omai mine, one of the largest, is one of Guyana's largest sources of income), diamonds. , manganese and uranium[13], in addition to having important water resources. All this apart from the gas and oil mentioned above and discovered by Exxon in 2015 (an equivalent of 11.000 million barrels) in the sea, about 190 kilometers from the coast, partially located in the area in dispute with Caracas, as has been stated. noted above in the text. For this reason, the Venezuelan Government qualifies as “illegal” Guyana's unilateral actions aimed at granting licenses for the exploitation of deposits in maritime areas still pending delimitation, according to the Maduro administration.
And the reaction of the Venezuelan regime towards its neighbor is not surprising. Since the exploitation of some of these resources has begun, Guyana has starred in what has been called the “South American miracle”, its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased exponentially in recent times: it grew by 43,5% in 2020, 20,1% in 2021, 57,8% in 2022 and estimates from the International Monetary Fund place it at 37,2% in 2023[14]. Rapid growth that occurs while the Venezuelan economy has been suffering for some time.
At this point it is worth making two notes to take into account:
- First of all, Venezuela already has one of the world's largest oil reserves on its own territory. Resources from which, at present, it can barely take much advantage (with a production of just over two million barrels per day), given the dubious management of the public company in charge of it, PDVSA, corruption and lack of investment. Something that also increases doubts about its capabilities for the exploitation of possible new deposits, such as those in the disputed area. Meanwhile, Guyana, for its part, and in the current circumstances, with much less oil, is on the verge of being able to produce more crude oil than Caracas.[15]. And, furthermore, until mid-January 2024 it has flatly refused to collaborate with Venezuela in the exploitation of the oil found, as noted above in this document.
- Secondly, without a doubt, the valuable natural resources of Essequibo are an incentive that spurs the Venezuelan claim. However, it is worth remembering that this claim long predates the discovery of oil and gas, for example, and that it has not changed since the mid-19th century, although it is also true that the claim has remained archived for years at different times. . It is, furthermore, one of the few issues on which both the Government and the Venezuelan opposition agree.
Then, then, there are more reasons that explain Venezuela's actions in this regard in recent weeks and months. And some of them are in their own internal political situation. Knowing that the Essequibo issue does not cause internal dissension, since there is a high consensus on the matter in the country, President Nicolás Maduro calls a consultative referendum on its sovereignty for December 3. Among its main reasons for doing so we can highlight: the effort to achieve greater internal support in the face of economic vicissitudes and, in a political key, a maneuver to distract from the difficulties that the regime faces in the face of the presidential elections this year in 2024.
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