The European Union and China must change their strategies regarding the war in Ukraine if they want to find a way out of the conflict
Conflict

No end in sight? The West, China and the war in Ukraine

The West supports Ukraine as a non-belligerent. China pretends to be neutral, but is increasingly seen by the West as a non-belligerent on Russia's side. In some ways, the West and China are no different: they do enough just to prevent "their" side from losing the Ukraine war, but otherwise they just hope that the other side will somehow give in - an attitude that cannot be called a strategy. Moreover, both the West and China will have to revise their strategies if they want to preserve their interests... Will this inevitably increase tensions between them? A vacillating West It is shameful that, more than two years after the start of the Ukraine war, the West has still not moved beyond piecemeal decisions about its support for Ukraine. The pattern, in fact, keeps repeating itself: every few months a decision is made to surrender. [Keep reading…]

Screenshot from a CCTV footage in a supermarket showing the moment of the explosion of one of the Hezbollah pagers hit by the Israeli attack
Cyberdefence

On Israel's attack on Hezbollah's "busca"

In the last few hours, thousands of Hezbollah members have been injured, many of them seriously, due to the explosion of the pagers they carried and used to communicate within the organization. The action, for which Israel is responsible, although all the details are not clear, points to two basic options: 1) the hacking of the devices, causing an explosion of the batteries or, much more likely; 2) their physical modification at some point between the factory and their subsequent delivery to Hezbollah's logistics managers. Whatever the case, Israel's attack on Hezbollah's pagers would have caused significant damage to this group supported by Iran, temporarily depriving it of its command and control capacity, as well as a good part of its personnel, not to mention the feeling of being totally infiltrated by the secret services. [Keep reading…]

Selective killings
Conflict

Israel's targeted assassinations, an effective tactic?

Whatever the shock wave of the latest high-ranking assassinations carried out by Israel: that of Ismail Haniya, head of the political wing of Hamas, and that of Fuad Shukr, head of the military branch of Hezbollah, it is of interest look back and observe, even if only with flying feathers, the use of this tactic by Israel's security and defense establishment. Leaders in its use over the years, it also merits, at least, raising some questions regarding its greater or lesser effectiveness, depending on the circumstances, the strategy it serves and the ultimate objective pursued, with it and with other tools within the framework of Israeli security and defense. Table of Contents A Widely Used Tactic Targeted Killings: The Concept Who Are the Targets Are Targeted Killings an Effective Tactic? [Keep reading…]

Possible directions of approach of the missile that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh
Conflict

The death of Ismail Haniyeh

A few hours ago, the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was announced while he was staying in the Sa'dabad complex in Tehran (Iran), after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Since the news broke, there have been many speculations regarding both the exact location of the attack that ended Haniyeh's life, and the way in which the action was carried out. There has been speculation, in relation to this, about the use of Israeli F-35I Adir fighter-bombers along with cruise missiles. Also with the possible use of combat helicopters, drones, and even anti-tank weapons and vehicle bombs. In addition, there has been speculation about the possible involvement of his own bodyguard, as well as the way in which Israel would have managed to infiltrate operatives into the Hamas leadership. In the following lines we evaluate these and [Keep reading…]

Chad map
Conflict

Chad in troubled waters

Today, Chad remains stable amid the growing instability of its conflictive neighborhood (Sudan, Libya, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger). And it is not only about the region, the Sahel (which includes the problems in Mali and Burkina Faso), but also about the increase in clashes of interests between large and medium powers. Their interest in starting, strengthening or expanding their influence on the African continent, including Chad, is precisely one of the few things that all of them have in common. And yet, the country's president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, has also had to deal with a transition in power, after the sudden death of his father in 2021, social protests, economic problems, and different types of violence in his territory. Index Introduction Domestic politics: power, a family issue Refugee crisis The different origins and causes of violence [Keep reading…]

The US-Japan alliance
Conflict

Strengthening the US-Japan alliance

The deterioration of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region is causing the US-Japan alliance to regain its value, given the need to increase its deterrence capacity, thus responding to the threat posed by both the People's Republic of China and North Korea or the Russian Federation. Recently, the US president and the Japanese prime minister held a meeting in Washington in which they highlighted the need to continue strengthening the relationship between their respective countries, interoperability and collaboration between the US Armed Forces and the US Self-Defense Forces. Japan and, also, to send a signal to Beijing and Pyongyang, something that could be done, among other things, by placing a four-star general - he currently holds the position one of three - at the head of the US forces deployed in Japanese territory. Index Introduction The US-Japan alliance Japan and the [Keep reading…]

China in the Middle East
Conflict

China's absence in the Middle East crisis

Since October 7, we have witnessed a worsening of tension in the Middle East to a level that we have not seen for decades, possibly since the 90s with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. A tension that has led to a multitude of aspects so far, such as the crisis in the Red Sea with the Houthis, and more recently Iran's direct attack on Israel in response to the bombing of its embassy in Damascus by Netanyahu's forces. . It is not the object of this focus to address the causes of this tension, but nevertheless a reason that influences it is the panoply of actors with different and radically opposed interests that have a presence in the region. From purely regional actors such as Iran, Saudi Arabia or Israel, to international actors, among which the US stands out mainly, but also Turkey and, in the [Keep reading…]

Image of the candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye
Conflict

Senegal: Diomaye Faye joins new group of young West African leaders

March 25, 2024: The opposition Bassirou Diomaye Faye takes over the Presidency of Senegal. Imprisoned until 10 days before the vote and unknown to most voters just a few months before, he surprises and defeats the prime minister, Amadou Ba, backed by the entire state apparatus and the outgoing president, Macky Sall. This document seeks to explore the main reasons for this electoral result, with its internal and external context, in a region where new and young African leaders who have achieved power thanks to coups d'état lead. Faye has in common with them his novelty (although his mentor, Ousmane Sonko, is a great opposition figure in Senegal), youth and part of an ideology to put into practice. There are numerous and diverse eyes on Faye, reaching the former metropolis: France, whose influence is declining in the area. [Keep reading…]

Point defense system of the USS "Carney" facing a Houthi missile
Conflict

Hamas' war against Israel (VII): the Red Sea crisis

Ten days after the Hamas attack on Israel, which opened a new chapter in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Yemen's Houthis announced that they would attack any merchant ship suspected of having ties of any kind to Israel transiting off their coasts. A decision that has opened a new crisis in the Red Sea, with important consequences. Since then, maritime security in that sea, as well as in its approaches from the Indian Ocean, has deteriorated considerably, with a decrease in maritime traffic of close to 90%. Some of the largest commercial shipping companies in the world, such as the Mollers-Maersk group or Hapag-Lloyd, have decided to temporarily suspend the transit of their ships through the region, a decision that has resulted in delays and increased prices (including of insurers). Hamas's war against Israel (I): the Hamas raid The war of [Keep reading…]

The president of Venezuela announces military deployment
Conflict

Venezuela Vs Guyana: the Essequibo of discord

The dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the sovereignty of the Essequibo territory dates back almost two centuries. It has had comings and goings, but it remains unresolved to this day. However, tension began to rise in 2015 and has escalated in the last six months. A review of the economic, political, internal and external aspects of this dispute can help to better understand the underlying current that flows under the current discord around the Essequibo. Recovering a past around which there is consensus, which coheres, to try to solve the problems of the present is seen as a strategy of dubious effectiveness at the outset. However, it seems to be the path chosen by Venezuela, immersed as it has been for years in one of the most difficult times in its recent history and with a regime in low times. “The past never dies, [Keep reading…]