China's absence in the Middle East crisis

Since October 7, we have witnessed a worsening of tension in the Middle East to a level that we have not seen for decades, possibly since the 90s with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. A tension that has led to a multitude of aspects so far, such as the crisis in the Red Sea with the Houthis, and more recently Iran's direct attack on Israel in response to the bombing of its embassy in Damascus by Netanyahu's forces. . It is not the object of this focus to address the causes of this tension, but nevertheless a reason that influences it is the panoply of actors with different and radically opposed interests that have a presence in the region. From purely regional actors such as Iran, Saudi Arabia or Israel, to international actors, among which the US stands out mainly, but also Turkey and, in recent years, China.

China's presence in the region has grown noticeably in the last decade, especially with the rise to power of Xi Jinping and his shift in Chinese foreign policy, moving to a much more assertive approach and demanding the international weight that it considers due to the country derived from its economic potential. One of the main focuses in this strategy of greater Chinese involvement at the international level is precisely the Middle East, where the country's economic, commercial and diplomatic presence is increasing. Not only does it now present itself as a strategic ally of Iran with the aim of avoiding the sanctions imposed by the West, but relations with Saudi Arabia, a traditional North American ally, are increasingly interesting for both.

The Asian giant is aware that to maintain the vitality of its investments in the region it needs peace and stability there, and it declares this in the Document on China's Arab Policy 2016 and in continuous diplomatic meetings between senior representatives of China and Arab countries. Along these lines, in March 2023 there was a historic agreement of reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had China as a mediator. This line of action is in line with the principles of peaceful coexistence that Xi Jinping has demonstrated since he took power, with peaceful coexistence, mutual respect and non-intervention in the internal affairs of other States.

However, as of October 7, we observed that China's work to maintain peace and stability in the area has been almost nonexistent. The effective actions that China has taken to maintain that peace and stability that is fundamental for its interests have been conspicuous by their absence, which may seem counterproductive in its international strategy and leads us to wonder why Beijing acts this way, and if it can really contribute to calming spirits in the area. Next, we are going to examine some of the keys that can explain this action that may seem contradictory or unrealistic:

• Relations with Iran: as we have mentioned, China constitutes a kind of lifeline for the Persian country, since it is the main destination for Iranian oil exports as a result of the economic sanctions imposed by the West in relation to the nuclear development program, and to establish itself as a rogue state in their eyes. Both countries have a Strategic Cooperation Agreement signed in 2021, which is the highest degree of cooperation that China can have with a country, and is also established as a key piece within the project of the Belt and Road Initiative, or new Silk Road. Both in its role as a commercial transit point, with the geostrategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential power that the country has, it has been the target of a large number of investment projects at a technological and infrastructure level, in addition to the notorious commercial relations between both. However, Tehran complains that these agreements have not materialized and have remained simple promises, which strains the rope between both countries and limits the capacity for Chinese influence in the country. But a break in relations is not proposed either, since that scenario would be fatal for Iran, so the situation is presented as a profitable relationship from an economic point of view, but Iran is opposed to following potential orders from China on a political level. On the other hand, the Asian giant does not seem willing to increase its ability to influence Iran for the points that we will see below.

• The problem is not Iran, it is Israel: From the Chinese view, all the tension unleashed in the region has its origins in the conflict between Israel and Palestine, and the open war with Hamas. This makes China consider that the efforts to achieve peace should not begin with a relaxation of Iranian actions, but that it is Israel that must cease its attacks on Gaza and the West Bank, and for this the fundamental actor is the United States, the main partner of the Israelis, which must work to stop the attacks and reach a negotiated solution. China's profile has traditionally been the two-state solution, giving support and diplomatic recognition to Palestine, as it rhetorically allows it to maintain legitimacy in the face of the Arab world, which in turn has colluded with China to look the other way in the face of Beijing's elimination of the Uyghurs.

• La great strategy China: Although the country is already the main economy in the world, China's discursive and strategic line is to champion itself as a representative of the countries of the so-called Global South. A Global South that identifies itself as an alternative bloc to the West that has traditionally dominated the international system. It aims to bring together all the countries in the world that are not organized around the set of values ​​advocated by liberal democracies, and to propose a model of social organization and the system as a whole that does not respond to the traditional one. Arab countries are part of the objective of this great Chinese strategy, with the aim of attracting them to its cause. Therefore, the conflict in the Middle East constitutes a good opportunity to establish a new discursive argument to support its model. China can argue that Western countries, and by that I mean mainly the US and certain European countries such as France and the United Kingdom, are not capable of guaranteeing peace, security and stability of the system, as well as their inability to solve open conflicts. In this way, it constitutes an opportunity to wear down the US, and subsequently propose its own solution through non-interference in the internal affairs of States and peaceful development.

• Relations with the Middle East: We already know that China is an actor with growing influence in the region, for which it has used its economic solvency and commercial capacity. The promises of development and investment have given it a great capacity to attract the most different countries. Today China maintains cordial relations with countries such as Israel, Palestine, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Taking a clear position in the conflict could cost it unnecessary tensions with some of the regional powers, which would harm Chinese interests more than increasing tension in the region. China prefers to play with ambiguity and remain as "everyone's friend" in the Middle East.

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